New Hampshire: The Fall of Nikki Haley or the Beginning of her Next Chapter?

Nikki Haley's poor showing in the New Hampshire primary has significantly damaged her prospects for winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Haley had staked much of her campaign's strategy on a strong finish or outright win in New Hampshire to position herself as the leading moderate alternative to Donald Trump. However, Trump's commanding victory in the state reveals the uphill battle Haley faces in overcoming his dominance within the GOP.

ABC News

Despite entering the race over a year ago as the great moderate hope, Haley finished a distant second place in New Hampshire despite it being a heavily moderate state. Trump took 55% of the vote compared to her 42%, but not the tie or win her campaign hoped for. The AP called the race for Trump almost as soon as voting began, underscoring his clear victory. This disappointing finish comes after Haley's campaign spent millions of dollars on ads contesting the state and despite analysts suggesting she needed a minimum of a very close second place to remain viable.

Several factors united to contribute to Haley's loss. Firstly, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy’s endorsements of Donald Trump in the final weeks before the primary helped consolidate conservative support behind him. Additionally, Haley’s campaign only recently shifted from attacking Desantis to fighting Trump directly on the campaign trail being too little too late.

In her response to Trump's remark that she may soon drop out, Haley maintained "she does not do what Trump tells her to do." However, Haley struggled to peel away his supporters. Her nuanced messaging proved insufficient to overcome Trump's dominance among the GOP base.

In her post-New Hampshire speech, Haley attempted to project optimism about her home state of South Carolina providing her a lifeline. However, Haley significantly trails Trump in an Emerson College poll that showed she lagged 30 points behind Trump, a gap that could widen to 40 points following the DeSantis and Ramaswamy endorsements. With the first two nominating contests cementing Trump's frontrunner status, Haley faces incredibly difficult odds moving forward. She will need a massive upset victory to rehabilitate her campaign, however, the hundreds of millions in big and small donations are enough to keep her on the campaign trail until the convention, despite not being a likely winner.

CNBC

Despite making it clear that she has no interest in being Trump’s VP according to Reuters, most analysts suggest Haley would be a strong candidate who would offset Trump’s unlikability outside of the MAGA echo chamber. However, I speculate she is staying in the race to raise her national profile and position herself as the heir to the Republican Party post-2024. Haley has strong credentials to launch a 2028 run and is well-liked amongst both voters and donors who still are backing her despite her recent loss in New Hampshire. Regardless, New Hampshire was likely her best shot at stopping Trump's march to the nomination, and she came up woefully short.

Barring a seismic shift in the race's dynamics, Nikki Haley's presidential campaign is effectively over. She remains personally popular with many voters, and polls suggest she would fare better against Biden in a general election than Trump. But surviving the GOP primary now appears out of reach. Her New Hampshire defeat underscores how firmly Trump maintains his grip on the Republican Party despite many in the party endorsing and hoping for her victory. She now must ponder her next political move, as her quest for the presidency in 2024 looks untenable, yet a 2028 run is not out of the question as many voters don’t find either DeSantis or Ramaswamy appealing.