Paradise Unraveled: Are Blue Zones Really the Key to Longevity?
Blue Zones. A non-scientific term referring to geographic hotspots where people are believed to have higher longevity. The phrase was first applied in March 2000 to Sardinia, an island in Italy with an unusually high number of people living beyond the age of 100. Since then, researchers have identified four other areas with a disproportionately high number of residents who live to be over 90 or 100, including Okinawa, Japan; Nicoya, Costa Rica; Ikaria, Greece; and Loma Linda, California. These locations have become the subject of several books, studies, and even the Netflix docuseries "2023’s Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zones."
Blue Zones have not gone without their fair share of criticism, however. Just last month, Dr. Saul Newman, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, received the Ig Nobel Prize (a humorous annual award recognizing quirky or seemingly trivial scientific achievements) for his work disproving Blue Zones. He discovered a concerning pattern of studies disregarding data inconsistent with the portrait of Blue Zones as longevity hotspots. He also asserts that the statistical anomalies he encountered are more likely due to administrative errors or pension fraud. In an interview with The Independent, Dr. Newman remarked, “What’s most astounding is that nobody in the academic community seems to have thought it’s ridiculous before this. It’s absurd.”
For instance, data from the European Union reveals that the island of Sardinia only ranks between 36th-44th in longevity in the continent. This discrepancy is made possible by an underreporting of deaths to the authorities. Meanwhile, in Nicoya and Ikaria, it was discovered that approximately 40-50% of centenarians had misreported their ages. In 2015, as part of its bailout conditions during the financial crisis, Germany requested that Greece conduct an audit of its spending. Prior to the audit, Greece had been paying pensions to roughly 9,000 centenarians, but that number plummeted by an astonishing 72% after the review.
Beyond the claims of increased life expectancy, the inhabitants of Blue Zones have been thought to share several common characteristics. Dan Buettner, the founder of Blue Zones LLC, proposed a set of “Power 9” factors as an explanation for why the residents of these regions live longer in his 2008 book "The Blue Zones: Lessons for Living Longer From the People Who've Lived the Longest." The observed behaviors include exercise incorporated into day-to-day activity, a strong sense of purpose, reduced stress in daily routines, stopping eating when 80% full, following predominantly plant-based diets, drinking 1-2 glasses of wine each day, fostering a sense of religious faith, prioritizing family, and maintaining positive social connections.
However, even these claims do not hold up well under scrutiny. Not only does Okinawa have the 4th highest suicide rate in Japan, but the city is also 93% atheist. Additionally, Japan maintains one of the most sizable and long-running nutritional surveys worldwide, obtaining information from 96% of its citizens. “When they’ve measured Okinawa, it doesn’t do any of the things they claim Blue Zones do,” Dr. Newman states. “Not even close. It’s comedically wrong.”
So, if the evidence suggests that Blue Zones may not be as legitimate as once thought, why do so many people continue to believe in them? Well, there is still truth to the fact that lifestyle factors and environment are more crucial for human lifespan than genetics. The National Library of Medicine’s MedlinePlus estimates that the heritability of human longevity is approximately 25%, and a 2018 article published in Genetics claims the genetic factors could be as low as 10%.
Ultimately, however, Newman boils down the fascination with Blue Zones to wishful thinking. “People do not want to go jogging,” says Newman. “They don’t want to give up drinking. They don’t want to give up smoking. They want there to be some far-flung, exotic island where everything’s okay, and if you eat the goji berries, you’re gold. It’s a nice dream, and it has always, throughout the entirety of history, sold well. But is it true? I would suggest jogging.”
Comentários